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Friday, 9 May 2014

8/2 定律

根据 8/2 定律,这个社会上,只有 20% 的人会成功,那就是说有 80% 是不会成功的,我不用失败来形容这 80%,因为不成功未必是失败者。

这个 8/2 定律被广用在很多领域上,真实的数字可能未必是 80% 和 20%,但,总的来说,就只有小部分会取得成功,而大部分的人将会是成
功的另一面,这是毋容置疑的。

现在,问题来的: 你认为你是 20%?还是 80%?

如果要用一个很科学的方式来衡量你是小部分的人还是大部分的人,我想是蛮困难的东西,可能再世牛顿也摸不着头。

而我就用了另一个方式来做衡量点,当你做一件事情的时候,你想一想,你做的事情,是不是大部分人也在做着的?你用的方式,是不是大部分人也用着的?

备注: 这里指的大部分是指同一个领域的大部分,举一个例子,如果你是股票投资者,那评估你做着的方法和方式,是不是大部分投资者都在做着的,如果是的话,你很大可能性不是股票界的 20%。

既然大部分人也用着相同的方法来做着同样的东西,那,你凭什么认为你将会得到不一样的结果?有什么理由相信你将会是那 20%?

爱因斯坦说过:

“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

同样的,和别人做着同样的事情,但奢望有不同的结果,那一样是无知和疯狂的表现。

要进入那 20% 不难,但你要有无比的信念和毅力,做别人 “不想做”,“不去做”,“不敢做” 的事情,那你成功的几率就会提高。

与众不同未必会是成功者,但往往成功者都是与众不同的。


Source:~乡下佬~

8/2 定律

根据 8/2 定律,这个社会上,只有 20% 的人会成功,那就是说有 80% 是不会成功的,我不用失败来形容这 80%,因为不成功未必是失败者。

这个 8/2 定律被广用在很多领域上,真实的数字可能未必是 80% 和 20%,但,总的来说,就只有小部分会取得成功,而大部分的人将会是成
功的另一面,这是毋容置疑的。

现在,问题来的: 你认为你是 20%?还是 80%?

如果要用一个很科学的方式来衡量你是小部分的人还是大部分的人,我想是蛮困难的东西,可能再世牛顿也摸不着头。

而我就用了另一个方式来做衡量点,当你做一件事情的时候,你想一想,你做的事情,是不是大部分人也在做着的?你用的方式,是不是大部分人也用着的?

备注: 这里指的大部分是指同一个领域的大部分,举一个例子,如果你是股票投资者,那评估你做着的方法和方式,是不是大部分投资者都在做着的,如果是的话,你很大可能性不是股票界的 20%。

既然大部分人也用着相同的方法来做着同样的东西,那,你凭什么认为你将会得到不一样的结果?有什么理由相信你将会是那 20%?

爱因斯坦说过:

“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

同样的,和别人做着同样的事情,但奢望有不同的结果,那一样是无知和疯狂的表现。

要进入那 20% 不难,但你要有无比的信念和毅力,做别人 “不想做”,“不去做”,“不敢做” 的事情,那你成功的几率就会提高。

与众不同未必会是成功者,但往往成功者都是与众不同的。


Source:~乡下佬~

30 Investing Tips & Tricks You Won’t Learn At School

There’re basically two movies you should watch before you jump into the world of investment, especially the stock market. The two movies are “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “Inside Job”, released in 2013 and 2010 respectively. Sure, there’re tons of investing books in the market but frankly, you won’t learn as much from those books as from these awesome movies. Besides, it’s too time consuming reading books.
The Wolf of Wall Street
Inside Job - 2010
The Wolf of Wall Street was funded by Malaysia PM Najib Razak’s stepson, Riza Aziz. The film which starred “Titanic” hero Leonardo DiCaprio has achieved huge success with a worldwide gross of US$389.6 million, not bad for a US$100 million budget film. It also attracted criticisms as to how Riza managed to get such a huge funding, considering PM Najib administrationcorruption allegation.

With the exception of “569 fuck” words being used throughout the 179 minutes viewing, the film which is based on memoir of Jordan Belfort, a New York stock broker who conned his way to earning hundreds of millions in the 1990s, is pretty entertaining. Besides drugs, sex, prostitutes and whatnot, you should learn some (dirty) facts about wheelings and dealings in the real world of trading or investing in Wall Street.
The Wolf of Wall Street - Leonardo DiCaprio and Real Jordan Belfort
While “The Wolf of Wall Street” was “fucking entertaining”, documentary film “Inside Job” was quite boring. Split into five parts, this US$2 million budget film actually grossed over US$7 million and won Academy Awards for “Best Documentary Feature”. It revealed how the 2008 subprime crisis was caused primarily by corruption in the United States financial system.

That’s right, just when everyone was fighting tooth and nail trying to rub shoulders with Obama during his recent trip to Malaysia, the President of the United States was an equally good liar, just like PM Najib. Barack Obama got into office due to his highly effective “Change” campaign, during which the 2008 great recession hit the country. Obama promised that era of greed, accounting frauds, irresponsibilities and irregularities of Wall Street will be changed – a huge bull.
President Obama and PM Najib - Liars
Guess what, Obama administration’s so-called financial reforms have been not only weak but proves to be a mere marketing gimmick. To make things worse, the same set of people whom Obama criticised and blamed for causing the 2008 crisis during his campaign were appointed as top economic advisers into his own administration – scumbags like Timothy Geithner, William Dudley, Mark Patterson, Lewis Sachs, Rahm Emanuel, Feldstein, Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke and whatnot.
2008 Financial Crisis - Timothy Geithner - Ten Trillion Dollars
If the above are not enough to stimulate and awake you to the fact that Wall Street government is bigger than Obama government can chew, consider the following short facts that you won’t learn in any of the universities on planet Earth.
Inside Job - 2010 - Black and White poster
{ 1 }  Markets go through at least one big pull-back every year, and one massive one every decade. Get used to it. It’s just what they do in order to make money. And if you can’t stomach this, don’t lay a finger in the world of investing.

{ 2 }  The phrase “double-dip recession” was mentioned more than 10 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. Surprisingly, there were virtually “no” mentions of “financial collapse” in 2006 and 2007, but it did come.

{ 3 }  There will be 7 to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Now that we have told you this, don’t act surprised or dumb when they come. If you like, call this the SOP (standard operating procedure) of investing.

{ 4 }  The “Wisdom of Buffett” says: “First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots.” Well, actually this does not only applies to stock investing, but also other businesses or scams, be it the Genneva Gold scams or Apple’s iPhone and iPad products.

{ 5 }  Warren Buffett’s best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive decades ago. It’s very doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record. Basically, there won’t be another Warren Buffett so stop dreaming you can become one, even though your Chinese name is “Wah Ren Bu Fei” (*grin*).
Warren Buffett - Innovators Imitators Idiots
{ 6 }  Some “legendary” investors whom we worship have barely beaten an index fund over their careers, with a small exceptions. Since there’s no other Warren Buffett, you can go learn from people like Daim Zainuddin or Chua Ma Yu on how to become “The Wolf of KLSE”. There’re more Wolfs than Warren in markets.

{ 7 }  The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered. Remember the infamous Malaysian Genneva Gold and U.S. Bernard Madoff investments, which turn out to be nothing but ponzi scams?

{ 8 }  Saying “I’ll be greedy when others are fearful” is much easier than actually doing it. The fact is when others are fearful, you’re doubly as fearful, and vice versa. It’s extremely difficult to buy for your clients when stocks are plunging, let alone putting your own money during the bear market.

{ 9 }  Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do next – will it goes up, goes down or circles around. End of story. Watch “The Wolf of Wall Street” and listen how DiCaprio’s boss (Matthew McConaughey) advises him about making clients happy with profit on the paper while brokers make real money in commissions.

{ 10 }  Mark Twain (Nov 1835 – Apr 1910) says this about truth: “A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes.”Like it or not, (Wall Street) big boys talk about lies more than the truth, everyday.
Mark Twain - A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes
{ 11 }  More than 10 years ago General Motors was on top of the world and Apple was laughed at. Today, the reverse is true. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.

{ 12 }  Professional investors have latest information and faster computers than you do. You will never beat them short-term trading. Don’t even try. And if you manage to, that’s pure luck and chances are you will not be able to do it again.

{ 13 }  If you’ve grand plan of trading penny stocks, do yourself a favour – just light your money on fire. Same for leveraged ETFs and perhaps Malaysian Unit Trust. Watch “The Wolf of Wall Street” and you will understand why this is so.

{ 14 }  The analyst, fund manager or stock-broker who talks about his mistakes is the person you want to listen to. Avoid the person who doesn’t – his are much bigger.

{ 15 }  When someone mentions charts, moving averages, head-and-shoulders patterns, resistance levels or whatnot, walk away. Run if you can, forget about your shoes.
Investing Technical Analysis - Run Away
{ 16 }  The market doesn’t care how much you paid for a stock or what you think is a “fair” price. So, when stock brokers or investment banks publish analysis about “fair” price, you know what craps they are talking about. But that’s their job, so don’t blame them.

{ 17 }  What markets do day to day is driven by random chance. Again, nobody knows what the markets will do – up, down or flat. Talking about stock movement is like bitching about 4-D or 5-D or lottery numbers.

{ 18 }  The decline of trading costs is one of the worst things to happen to investors, because it made frequent trading possible. Do you know that Interactive Brokers only charges US$1 in commission for 100 shares or 1 stock option? Decades ago, high transaction costs used to cause people to think hard before they acted, and in the process save them from being slaughtered.

{ 19 }  Most of what is taught about investing in school is theoretical nonsense. Proofs are in abundance. There are very few rich professors. To earn good money, they do mercenaries work. Dean of Columbia University Graduate School of Business, Glenn Hubbard, was paid US$150,000 by insurance arm of the Investment Company Institute for his academic paper. He also earned US$785,000 by serving on three corporate boards.

{ 20 }  The best investors in the world have more of an edge in psychology than in finance. Ever wonder how small-time speculators or gamblers are being lured into stock market casino every day without fail by “big boys”? Go figure.

Investing Stock - Psychology Studies
[ Click to Enlarge ]
{ 21 }  How much experience a money manager or fund manager has doesn’t tell you much. They can underperform the market for an entire career. And many have, but they still keep their job, because their job was not to make money for their clients (read: that’s you, dude).


{ 22 }  However much money you think you’ll need for retirement, double it, or better still triple it. Now you’re closer to reality, if you’re lucky.

{ 23 }  Professional investing is one of the hardest careers to succeed at, but it has lowest entry requirement and requires zero credentials. Evenfishmongers can become “stock specialists”. That creates battalions of so-called “experts” who have no idea what they are doing. People forget this because it doesn’t apply to many other fields.

{ 24 }  The next recession is never like the last one. That makes recession interesting, and opportunities for Wall Street alligators. If you still don’t understand why recession happens by now, don’t waste your time reading financial columns, anymore.

{ 25 }  The majority of market news is not only useless, but also harmful to your financial health. Despite the fact that you’ve access to information faster than it was 40 years ago, you still can’t become a fraction of Warren Buffett or beat the market makers, so go figure why.
Investing 101 - Financial News
{ 26 }  If you have credit card debt and are thinking about investing in anything, stop and think again. You will never beat 18% to 36% annual interest, some on daily or monthly compounding.

{ 27 }  The most boring companies - toothpaste, junk food, milk powder, toiletries – can make some of the best long-term investments. That makes you think twice about getting MBA in investing, no?

{ 28 }  Stop thinking that your government, Central Bank, Federal Reserve, politicians and whatnot will solve your financial problems. They’ve bigger things to do – how to solve their economic mismanagement (quietly). It’s easier for you to focus more on your own well being instead of screwing it up, hoping and waiting for the government to step in to help you. And when government suddenly tells you the country’s fundamental is strong and urges you to trust them, you should start selling like crazy (*grin*).

{ 29 }  Trust no one who screams buy or sell, whether they are from CNBC or innovative stock trading software. When they tell you to buy, chances are “fucking high” they want to unload desperately. And when they tell you to sell, they want to buy every single shares that you’ve got. Plain and simple.
Investing 101 - Buy Sell
{ 30 }  Don’t fall in love with companies you invest. Companies die and new ones emerge. Treat them as prostitute or gigolo whom you’re interested to get orgasm, nothing more than that.

There you have it – 30 simple but effective facts about investing, that could help you from being slaughtered on the trading floor. You may not like it but you’re on your own in the world of investing markets.
Source:http://www.financetwitter.com/

Thursday, 8 May 2014

一个关于渔夫的故事

从前,有一位渔夫,他每天都会到海边把被海浪冲上来的海星放回进海里。

有一天,刚巧一位年轻人经过,年轻人看到这位渔夫的举动就非常好
奇,连忙的问到: “你在干什么?”

渔夫也回答说: “你没看到我在丞救海星吗?”

年轻人再回问: “每天有那么多海星被冲上海边,你救得几多个,倒不如回家睡觉吧。”

渔夫很不以为然的回答: “救得一个就一个”。

你不能否认,这个世界上,确实是存在着很多丞救海星的渔夫,他们不为名利,默默的点燃自己小小的火柴,希望能照亮他人,我也但愿我是其中一位渔夫。

在我过往的人生里,上天对我真的不薄,让我得到了很好的知识和经验,更让我拥有了写作的能力,所以,我希望能透过文章,以我个人的经历来篇写文章,从而鼓励一些有需要帮助的人。

2008 年,我成立了我的部落格,名为 “乡下佬的成功学”,过后我用这个平台来分享我的文章。说起来当时真的有压力,一位籍籍无名的小子,居然在网上谈起成功学,也因如此,我得到很多 “良好” 的回应,都是一些说我不够资格篇写这类文章的称赞。

我没有放弃,我知道自己的方向和理念,我不理会他人的批评,继续的写,一直的写,不断地写,努力的写。

就因为我的坚持,我开始有了一些读者,从开始的几位,到几十位,到几百位,直到现在我也不知道我的读者群有多少,但,我已经从原来的一个分享平台,扩展到几个地方。

我很感谢一些给我鼓励的网友,他们鼓励我要继续的写下去,不要放弃自己的理念,感恩,我没有让他们失望。

不过,说真的,无论有多少网友来阅读我的文章,我都还是保持一贯的作风,希望透过文章来转达正能量,让大家感受正面的信息,从而改善自己的生活。

我的故事,我的文章有没有带给你正面的信息? 对你有没有帮助?

这,我是不可能知道的,但,我依然会做一个无私奉献的渔夫,努力的转达积极乐观的正面信息给大家

Monday, 5 May 2014

The Most Valuable Lesson I Learned Regarding Money and Time

There are two valuable things in investing.


Building wealth and your time.

Notice I did not say money. Because money is a tool. It isn't wealth.

But why time?

One of the ways my thinking changed over the past 2 years was after I started reading and following a guy named Tim Ferris.

Now this guy is all about maximizing efficiency and becoming the best at whatever you do.

The catch is that he doesn't do anything in a conventional way. He completely breaks the mold of whatever you thought was the normal way and goes about hacking ways to get better faster.

His book "The 4 Hour Workweek" motivated me to change my mindset about money and time. Especially when it came to investing and old school value.

You see, I'm a cheapo.

When my toothpaste runs out, I'll cut it in half and scrape the remaining. That would still be good for another week of teeth brushing.

When I go grocery shopping, I compare the same product by how much I'm paying per ounce.

But Tim Ferris completely flipped my world upside down.

Before, I was so hung up on what something cost and trying to save a few bucks here and there.

I wasn't thinking about the ultimate benefit of how it was going to help me save time, quicken my speed of learning and research and let me focus on more important things.

Think of it as glass half empty thinking.

I'd waste hours price shopping different investment and business tools just to save $2 a month.

I love investing and working on Old School Value but I was fretting too much about cost instead of framing it properly as an investment.

In my grocery shopping example above, I was willing to spend 30 minutes comparing 5 different stir fry sauces just to save $2.

Instead of quickly choosing and going home to write more blog posts, work on my business or spend quality time with my wife, I chose to waste 30 min simply to save $2.

I was valuing my time as $4 an hour in that situation. More than 50% below minimum wage.

Same with investing.

I was so cheap I wasn't willing to sign up for some really good services or newsletter that was going to help me get things done quicker.

You can relate right?

I bet you feel like you just don't have enough time and everything is overwhelming.

Well, I stopped doing anything that I view as below my hourly fair value.
Instead of comic books, I read business and investment books.
Instead of news, I ask a news freak friend to tell me what's happening in the world.
Instead of learning to code and design, I pay for 100x better results.
and more.
That's my secret.

One of the biggest time and energy killers is trying to filter quality stocks and calculate intrinsic value the right way.